Monday, March 24, 2014

The Weather And Nat Silver

A meteorologist once explained that weather forecasts are never wrong because the weather forecast is the way things would happen if everything remained the same. In other words, forecasts are made with the best available data at the time. But one thing is for sure about American politics-- things change.

Democrats to Nate Silver: You're Wrong -

Democrats aren't taking Nate Silver's latest Senate prediction lying down.

In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician's prediction—made a day earlier—that Republicans were a "slight favorite" to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee's Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he'll be wrong again in 2014.

"In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecast a 61 percent likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority," Cecil said. "Three months later, Democrats went on to win 55 seats..."

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