Sunday, May 25, 2008

More Primary Math

Democrat Taylor Marsh Broadcasts Live Talk Radio and Blogs Politics: "The New Math for Clinton and the Old Horse Race for Obama, guest post by Marc Rudin:

"...With yesterday's primaries Hillary Clinton now leads in the popular vote by 179,704 votes with 12% of the precincts yet to report in Oregon. It also includes the Florida and Michigan vote totals where I allocated 149,010 votes to Barack Obama for his share of the "uncommitted" line in Michigan.

As everyone familiar with what really went on in Michigan knows, Obama arranged with the state Democratic committee to have his name represented by a line that read "Uncommitted" and every voter in Michigan knew it. John Edwards agreed to be part of the "uncommitted" line so the only issue was apportioning the 40.7% of the uncommitted vote. I gave Edwards the 14% of the vote average he had gotten everywhere else and Obama a little over 25%. When Florida and Michigan are factored in, Clinton has the popular vote lead. With regards to delegates, Obama's lead is now by 94 delegates and that will get smaller after Puerto Rico where 55 delegates up for grabs. Clinton is expected to do even better in Puerto Rico than she did in Kentucky.

Clinton is virtually assured that she will end the primary season with the popular vote lead. And its the popular vote that is the only clear indicator of the true will of the people , not the delegate count given the Democrats bizarre way of apportioning delegates..."

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